Though the sport does not receive broad attention in non-Olympic years, swimming is consistently one of the most viewed sports during the competition.  And this year, as in the last three Olympic Games, Michael Phelps is the big story on the men’s side.  Yesterday’s victory in the 4x100m relay increased Phelps’ record for the most medals of any athlete in any sport – 23 total medals, 19 of which are gold.

However, when it comes to sponsorships and endorsements, Phelps has proved to be a challenge for marketers. While his athletic accomplishments are unparalleled and he’s highly recognizable, his “bad boy” behavior has led to PR issues, a temporary USA Swimming ban, and the loss of the Kellogg Company as a sponsor.   But 2016 is the year for a new, more mature Phelps, who, as of May, became a father. This year, he’s qualified for three individual events (100 butterfly, 200 butterfly, 200 individual medley) along with yesterday’s relay.

Having competed in four previous Olympics, Phelps has built up an impressive list of sponsors: AT&T, Subway, Speedo, Omega, Visa, PowerBar and now Under Armour.  However, in 2014, he ended his decade+ relationship with Speedo to work with a smaller swimsuit company, Aqua Sphere.

Two challenges marketers face when looking at sponsorships are: 1) picking the right celebrity/athlete, and 2) figuring out how to ultimately measure the success of the partnership. To solve this, brands can leverage the massive scale available via social networks to determine athlete affinities that make sense for their brand, and essentially use the same process to measure the results.  Using an algorithm-based approach to measure the engagement behaviors of hundreds of millions of social media users (think commenting, sharing and retweeting), brands can see which athletes, TV shows, movies, celebrities and even other brands engage their social bases.

Though Speedo no longer sponsors Phelps, their longtime relationship means that their affinity lingers; it is the brand with the highest TrueAffinty™ score with Phelps (8.66 out of 10).  However, Under Armour’s sponsorship is starting to show TrueAffinity growth (8.13) as well, particularly since the launch of a new ad with Phelps in March. The comparison chart below shows the affinities of Under Armour and Speedo with Michael Phelps.

Under Armour is positioning themselves for ever more growth with the Phelps fan base during the Olympics, though Rule 40 prevents them from being too direct.  They can’t use words such as “Rio,” “gold” or “summer” in any marketing materials, but they will be advertising Phelps during the games.

Another interesting trend for Phelps’s brand relationships is emerging in the QSR space.  Phelps has a relationship with Subway, going back to 2008.  But Subway has backed away from using Phelps in ads, and their mutual affinity is decreasing.  At the same time, McDonald’s, who is an Olympic sponsor, is gaining ground – without sponsoring Phelps directly.

But for this year’s Olympics, even with Phelps in the water, Katie Ledecky is primed to be the emerging star of the pool.  She dominated the 400m freestyle yesterday, smashing her own world record by almost 2 seconds, and is expected to win three more gold medals in Rio.  Despite high earning potential, Katie Ledecky chose to pass up millions of dollars in potential endorsement contracts and keep her amateur status to accept a scholarship at Stanford. Therefore, viewers will not see her in any ads or marketing campaigns this year.

Below is a list of top affinities for Both Phelps and Ledecky.  Many of Phelps’ sponsors appear of the list.  As an amateur, Ledecky’s affinities are more organic, or the result of indirect sponsorships.

Top Affinities of Phelps & Ledecky

* Current direct sponsor

** Past direct sponsor

** Olympic sponsor

It shouldn’t shock anyone that Ledecky’s highest affinities are with swim gear companies – Speedo and Arena currently have essentially equal TrueAffinity numbers, though Ledecky fans are twice as likely to engage with Arena content over Speedo content.

Even though Katie is an amateur, CenturyLink benefited by being the title sponsor of the pool where the Olympic trials were held.  Affinity between Katie and CenturyLink have steadily increased into the Olympic trials, proving that even indirect sponsorships can have an impact.  Others on the list should consider courting Katie post-college, as her audience is highly likely to engage with their content.  Perhaps Arena or Lily Pulitzer will come knocking.

Sponsoring Olympic athletes is big business, and can be a good way to enhance your branding campaigns.  Mutual affinity provides a mechanism for brands to select the sponsorships with the most potential, and then also provides a way to measure the impact of that relationship.